Forecasting

==[|FORECASTING] == **What is Forecasting?** //“Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the state of the atmosphere at a certain time (can be the present or the future) at a certain location.” (1)// Those who study and present their findings about the weather are known as meteorologists Weather forecasting is carried out by collecting data concerning the current state of the atmosphere and how it will change over time. However forecasts that predict the weather in the future can become less accurate depending on how far into the future they are predicting. **A Brief History**  Weather forecasting is no new trend. As far back as 650 BC, there is evidence of early humans attempting to read the weather. The Babylonians, for example, attempted to predict the weather by studying cloud patterns. It has also been recorded that in 300 BC, the Chinese also attempted to read the weather. Yet many of these forecasting methods were not always accurate. Forecasting the weather mainly relied on someone observing the weather and drawing conclusions on what was to happen in the future. For example, it was believed that if the sunset was red, the next day would be clear and sunny. However, these forecasting methods proved to be primitive and unreliable. Not until 1837 did real weather forecasting truly begin. With the creation of the telegraph, people could now begin to draw more or less accurate reports of weather conditions. In the 1840s, the telegraph allowed people to record weather conditions over a much larger area. However, it was not until 1922 when Lewis Fry Richardson proposed his idea of using numerical weather prediction to forecast the weather. “//Numerical weather prediction used mathematical models of the atmosphere to predict the weather.” (2)// This new idea was not used until 1955.

**Forecasting Today**  Today, weather forecasting has five basic steps: This is the first step in forecasting the weather. In this stage, trained professionals observe and record certain aspects of the weather such as, atmosphere pressure, temperature, wind speed and direction, humidity, and precipitation. These observations are made from the earth’s surface or in the middle of the stratosphere (30,000m/ 100,000ft above the earth’s surface). Other times a weather satellite may be used to observe the atmosphere. They are useful as they have almost global coverage. They are also useful as they can record the temperature of clouds. However, sometimes these satellites are not as accurate as one would hope. In this stage, the data that was recorded from the observations is brought together to produce a meteorological analysis. This meteorological analysis is usually a 3D model that represents the current conditions of the atmosphere.  In this stage of weather forecasting, numerical weather prediction models of the atmosphere are simulated on the computer. Meteorologists then use this weather simulation to predict what could happen to the weather in the future and how the atmosphere could potentially evolve. In this stage, human observations are added to the weather models that are usually to small and overlooked by the simulation. This helps increase the accuracy of the weather forecast. The final stage of weather forecasting is the actual presentation of the forecast. The meteorologist will publicly announce what the current weather conditions are, what they might soon be, and how it could evolve over a certain period (usually a 7-10 days).
 * **Data collection**
 * **Data assimilation**
 * **Numerical weather prediction**
 * **Model processing**
 * **Presenting the forecast**

**The Uses of Weather Forecasting**  The public needs to be aware of the weather conditions in their local area. It is the National Weather Service’s job to inform the public if there is a thunderstorm, heavy snow, flooding, or even extreme weather conditions. Their main priority is to protect life and property. The main form of informing the public is through the use of TVs and radios. The weather is a very important factor in the aviation industry. Pilots need to be conscious of weather conditions in the country they are going to land in. Fog, icing, turbulence, hail, strong winds, and thunderstorms can cause damage to an airplane. Electricity and gas companies rely on weather forecasts to anticipate the demand of the population. For example, if there is going to be a heat wave during the summer, the electricity company can anticipate that many people will be using their Acs – there will be a surge in the demand. By anticipating this surge, companies can buy more supplies or adjust their prices. Sometimes private companies pay for weather forecasts that benefit them by helping them increase their profits and avoid losses. For example, oil companies might decide not to drill of oil when the weather forecast calls for lots of rain and lightning.
 * **Public Information**
 * **Air Traffic**
 * **Military/ Navy**
 * **Agriculture**
 * **Utility Companies**
 * **Private sector**

**o Synoptic Forecasting: This method uses basic rules that the atmosphere follows. Meteorologists take their observations, and apply those rules to make a short-term forecast.**
===**o Statistical Forecasting: Meteorologists ask themselves, what does it usually do this time of year? Records of average temperatures, average rainfall and average snowfall over the years give forecasters an idea of what the weather is "supposed to be like" at a certain time of year.**=== ===**o Computer forecasting: Forecasters take their observations and plug the numbers into complicated equations. Several ultra-high-speed computers run these various equations to make computer "models" which give a forecast for the next several days. Often, different equations produce different results, so meteorologists must always use the other forecasting methods along with this one. That's why when it comes to forecasting, machines can't do it alone; you always need humans involved.**===

**MicMicro-Forecasting: Forecasting but in much more detail and in a much smaller area**.
**Advantages and Disadvantages** **Advantages** **Disadvantages**
 * Informs the public of the current weather conditions and the potential change. Knowing this allows people to avoid bad weather or reschedule a trip.
 * Public informed of extreme weather disasters and have time to take the necessary precautions or find shelter
 * Pilots know whether or not to prepare for bad landing conditions
 * Knowing the weather helps companies make a profit or avoid losses
 * Predictions are not always correct
 * Weather can change at any time
 * Announcing weather disasters is sometimes slow

**Social & Ethical Issues** **1. Reliability** **2. Integrity of Data** - **3. Security** - **4. Privacy and Anonymity** - **5. Authenticity** - **6. Intellectual Property** - **7. Equality of Access** **8. Control** **9. Globalization and Cultural Diversity** **10. Policies and Standards** - **11. People and Machines**
 * Weather forecasts presented to the public should be reliable because many people depend on them
 * Wrong information could cause mass panic
 * By using the internet, people can look up the weather forecasts in many different countries
 * Not everyone has acess to internet though
 * Some people may not have acess to a TV or even a radio
 * Predicted and presented public forecasts control our day
 * Sometimes companies are controlled by what the presented forecasts predict
 * Breaks down cultural borders as people all over the world can check the weather in different countries
 * People must interpert the data collected by the weather machines
 * Sometimes human observation is added into the forecast
 * Presentations of weather to the public could soon be achieved without human help

**References**
 * 1) "Weather forecasting". Wikipedia. Sept 10, 2007 <@http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_forecasting >.
 * 2) "Numerical weather prediction". Wikipedia. Sept 10, 2007 <@http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numerical_weather_prediction >.

**More Information** Check out these sites for forecasting examples: @http://www.weather.com/ @http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/

Lana Bilani